How can we manage a possible pandemic?
Epidemics and pandemics have the potential to cause millions of deaths worldwide. SARS and Avian Influenza are past and looming natural threats. Alarmingly, a single bio-terrorist could trigger such an event – yet the World Health Organization and national governments have limited resources to respond in time. Flexible plans and resources need to be assembled and deployed in advance to limit the damage from such fast-moving events.
To prepare effectively governments and health organisations need to be able to:
- adapt plans rapidly to respond to different disease characteristics (eg infectivity, morbidity, mortality)
- understand in advance the effectiveness of different approaches to communications, quarantine, treatment etc
- allow for a wide variety of conditions prevailing in widely dispersed locations (eg demographic, cultural, institutional, infrastructure, resource availability) .
All these demanding needs can be met by rapid analysis of historic and evolving data and modelling the future outcomes – a core expertise of PA’s.
The key questions that can be be answered by dynamic modeling
PA’s dynamic modeling expertise can rapidly answer questions such as:
- What have been the most effective measures in containing potential epidemics?
- What if an influenza with different transmission characteristics began to spread? What transferable lessons can we take?
- What if conditions were worse than expected? (More virulent, less detectable symptomatic recognition, less effective initial local control...) What contingency intervention plans would be needed?
- What institutional capacity is required to control and treat an epidemic? (Hospital beds, quarantine facilities, personnel)
- What characteristics of the situation threaten effectiveness of measures? What are the key things we should measure?
- How do all of these answers change for different regions? (Each with different levels and types of medical capacities and capabilities.)
- How do all these answers change as the virus mutates? (To different degrees of contagiousness, symptom progression and lethality.)
And, most critically,
- How can we identify leverage points and direct resources in advance, and in the early stages, of a pandemic to do the most good?
PA’s dynamic modeling of Avian Influenza
PA’s dynamic modeling expertise enables us to simulate an Avian Influenza pandemic in order to identify the highest leverage policy actions, develop both pre-emptive action and emergency response plans, and deploy available resources most effectively
We are able to analyse known disease characteristics and conduct scenario testing given disease unknowns. Analyses can identify key factors to monitor in the event of an Avian Influenza outbreak to inform response policy in real time.
By exercising the model under a range of different regional characteristics, we are able to evaluate policy effectiveness for given region-specific conditions and constraints.
Further information
For further information on how PA can bring its world-leading dynamic simulation modeling expertise to bear on the potential crisis of an Avian Influenza pandemic, please contact:
John O'Neill on + 44 1763 267133
or e-mail: healthcare@paconsulting.com
