Sir
With reference to Andrew Jack's article on corporate planning for an avian flu pandemic ('The bird flu issue has landed in the boardroom' January 10). Too few of us grasp the potential disruption, the human suffering, and the economic turmoil that may occur when a pandemic erupts.
While Mr Jack highlights some examples of co-ordinated efforts, much more is required. Individual company initiatives will help, but the active engagement of governments, philanthropic organisations, citizens’ groups, and corporations is essential.
The potential burden on healthcare delivery systems worldwide is an important factor, and few tools exist for helping us understand and plan for such circumstances. However, computer modelling techniques can be used to bring together knowledge from a variety of sources to construct a structured representation of what might happen. Modelling can begin to approximate the changing circumstances, interconnectedness and impacts of possible interventions.
For example, a PA Consulting model examined the responses in Singapore and China to the Sars epidemic, and estimated that if Singapore had responded in a manner similar to China, there would have been a devastating ten-fold increase in infections and fatalities. We have completed such analyses for an avian flu pandemic and the results highlight the massive complexity and uncertainty that would result.
The challenge before all of us is this: what can we do now? What policy incentives can governments establish to encourage co-operation and planning? How can we share insights and ideas? We recommend calling together those who have created models to work together to advance the kind of collaboration that is needed for effective pandemic management. We must all step forward and devote resources now in order to avoid losses that we can barely imagine at this time.
